Probe is how many empty or occupied position are to be "Looked-up" before actually inserting an element.
There are $2$ cases for which total number of probes while inserting these keys is at least $4$ :
$\rightarrow$ $M$ ways to decide for $K1$ ($1$ Probe Done)
$\rightarrow$ Now, only $1$ way for $K2$ to collide with $K1$ (In this case $2$ Probes)
$\rightarrow$ Now, $K3$ can go anywhere ( $4$ Probes Done)
Hence, Probability for this case = $\frac{m}{m} * \frac{1}{m} *\frac{m}{m}$ = $\frac{1}{m}$
- In terms of No collision occurs
$\rightarrow$ $M$ ways to decide for $K1$ ( $1$ Probe Done)
$\rightarrow$ Now, $K2$ can go anywhere other than $K1$ and having $m -1$ ways to decide (In this case $1$ Probe)
$\rightarrow$ Now, $K3$ can go to either $K1$ or $K2$ ( $4$ Probes Done)
Hence, Probability for this case = $\frac{m}{m}*\frac{m-1}{m}*\frac{2}{m}$ = $\frac{2(m-1)}{m^{2}}$
Hence, Total Probability comes out to be = $\frac{2(m-1)}{m^{2}} + \frac{1}{m}$