Let's first solve this question with Brute-force approach.
Let $1,2,3,4$ be the four numbers.
So, We have Two sorted lists of $2,2$ item each. So, We have 4C2 = 6 possibilities
$1,2$ and $3,4$ => $2$ comparisons required.
$3,4$ and $1,2$ => $2$ comparisons required.
$1,3$ and $2,4$ => $3$ comparisons required.
$2,4$ and $1,3$ => $3$ comparisons required.
$1,4$ and $2,3$ => $3$ comparisons required.
$2,3$ and $1,4$ => $3$ comparisons required.
So, Average number of Comparisons (Expected number of comparisons in a merge step ) = $16/6 = 8/3$
Now, that is Brute-force approach and clearly, it is efficient only for small cases like the one asked.
There is a General formula for Expected number of comparisons in a merge step When Each Sorted array has $n/2$ elements :
Expected number of comparisons in a merge step = $\frac{n^2}{n+2}$ ..Note that $n/2$ is the number of elements in both sorted arrays, Not $n$.
The expected number of comparisons is pretty close to $n−2$. As $\frac{n^2}{n+2}$ $≈$ $n-2$