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$10\%$ of all email you receive is spam. Your spam filter is $90\%$ reliable: that is, $90\%$ of the mails it marks as spam are indeed spam and $90\%$ of spam mails are correctly labeled as spam. If you see a mail marked spam by your filter, what is the probability that it really is spam?

  1. $10\%$
  2. $50\%$
  3. $70\%$
  4. $90\%$
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