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Go Classes | DA Course | Machine Learning

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You are walking down Shattuck Ave. when you find a quarter on the ground. You see nothing unusual about this quarter, so you figure it is almost certainly a fair coin, though you realize that manufacturing irregularities in the coin minting process mean that coins are rarely exactly fair. You toss the coin 10 times and observe the following outcomes:

H H H H H H H H H T
with H denoting heads and T denoting tails. Assume coin tosses are independent. What is the maximum likelihood estimate of the next toss being heads?

 

  1. $\frac{5}{10}$
     
  2. between $\frac{5}{10}$ and $\frac{9}{10}$
     
  3. $\frac{9}{10}$
     
  4. more than $\frac{9}{10}$

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$\text { Solution: (c) } \frac{9}{10} \text {. The MLE does not take into account the prior. }$
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