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In answering on a multiple choice test, a student either know the answer or guesses. Let p be the probability that the students knows the answer and 1-p be the probability that the student guesses. Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability 1/m, where m is the number of multiple choice alternatives. what is the probability that he answers the question correctly ?

In this ques sample space will be { KC ,GC ,GI} 

K= knowing answer , C = answer is correct , G= guesses the answer , I=Incorrect answer 

My confusion is that in the question P(K)=p  but shouldn't it be 1/3 since we have  2 mutually exclusive events here 

1. Knowing and answers correctly in one set, so P(K)=1/3 

2. Guessing the answer which may be correct or incorrect , so P(G)=2/3 

why is it p in the question ?

1 Answer

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"If the student guesses then he does not know the answer & if the student knows the answer then he is not going to guess."

So yes $P(K)$ and $P(G)$ are mutually exclusive events, since only one of them can happen at a time.

But given $P(K)$ and $P(G)$ are mutually exclusive events, the only fact you can guarantee here is 

$P(K) \bigcap P(G) = 0$ and nothing more.

You can not infer the exact values of $P(K)$ and $P(G)$ from their mutual exclusiveness.


It would be something like:

you have two sets $A$ & $B$, and it is given that 

$A \cup\ B = 1$ and $A \cap\ B = 0$.

What can you say about sets $A$ & $B$ ?

From $(A \cup B)= A + B + (A \cap B)$

we can say that, $ A + B = 1$

Clearly we can not conclude from this equation that what will be the individual values of $A$ & $B$.

But one thing about which you are sure is if you know the cardinality of $A$(say the cardinality of $A$ is $x$), then you can find the cardinality of $B$(it will be $( 1 - x)$), and vice versa.

Similarly here with the given information about $P(K)$ and $P(G)$ you can only say that 

$P(K) + P(G) = 1$

Which shows that events $K$ and $G$ are totally exhaustive, that is the student MUST attempt the question no matter whether his  answers is correct or incorrect but he can not leave it unattempted.


Coming to the answer of the original question, Umang is right.

In your conventions,

$P(KC) = p$,

$P(GC) = (1 - p) \cdot \frac{1}{m}$, since out of $m$ choices only one is correct.

$P(GI) = (1 - p) \cdot \frac{(m - 1)}{m}$, since $(m - 1)$ are incorrect out of $m$ choices.

$P(C) = \frac {P(KC) + P(GC)}{P(KC) + P(GC) + P(GI)}$

but $P(KC) + P(GC) + P(GI) = 1$

Hence the probability that he answers the question correct would be

$P(C) = P(KC) + P(GC) = p + (1 - p) \cdot \frac{1}{m}$

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