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Assume that in a room there are $k$ persons. We know that $k=3$ with probability $\frac{1}{4}, k=5$ with probability $\frac{1}{4}$, and $k=10$ with probability $\frac{1}{2}$. What is the probability that at least two persons in the room have their birthday on the same day of the week? Assume that all days of the week are equally likely.

  1. $\frac{1}{2}\left(1+\frac{15 \times 61}{49^{2}}\right)$
  2. $1-\frac{1}{2}\left(\frac{30}{49}+\frac{360}{49^{2}}\right)$
  3. $1-\frac{15}{98}\left(1+\frac{12}{49}\right)$
  4. $1-\frac{15 \times 61}{49^{2}}$
  5. $\frac{4}{7}$

     

1 Answer

7 7 votes
Let \( A \) be the event that at least two people share the same week day birthday.

 

Then,

\[
P(A) = 1 - P(\text{all birthdays fall on different week days})
\]

When \( k = 3 \), the number of ways to assign different week days is:

\[
P(\text{all distinct} \mid k = 3)=
\frac{7}{7} \cdot \frac{6}{7} \cdot \frac{5}{7} = \frac{210}{343} = \frac{30}{49}
\]

When \( k = 5 \), the number of ways to assign different week days is:
\[P(\text{all distinct} \mid k = 5)=
\frac{7}{7} \cdot \frac{6}{7} \cdot \frac{5}{7} \cdot \frac{4}{7} \cdot \frac{3}{7} = \frac{2520}{16807} = \frac{360}{49^2}
\]

When \( k = 10 \), we are assigning 10 people, different week days which is not possible (by PHP)

\[
P(\text{all distinct} \mid k = 10) = 0
\]

Given:
\[
P(k = 3) = \frac{1}{4}, \quad P(k = 5) = \frac{1}{4}, \quad P(k = 10) = \frac{1}{2}
\]

Applying total probability:

\[
P(\text{all distinct}) = \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{30}{49} + \frac{1}{4} \cdot \frac{360}{49^2} + \frac{1}{2} \cdot 0
\]

\[
= \frac{1}{4} \left( \frac{30}{49} + \frac{360}{49^2} \right)
\]

\[
= \frac{15}{98} \left( 1 + \frac{12}{49} \right)
\]

Thus, the required probability is

\[
P(A) = 1 - \frac{15}{98} \left( 1 + \frac{12}{49} \right)
\]

 
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