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Suppose that $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ form a random sample from a uniform distribution on the interval $[0, \theta]$, with a large sample size of $n=300$. The following hypotheses are to be tested about the population mean $\mu=\theta / 2$ :

$H_0: \mu \geq 5$ (which is equivalent to $\left.\theta \geq 10\right) H_1: \mu<5$ (which is equivalent to $\theta<10$ )

A test is constructed based on the sample mean $\bar{X}$. Using the Central Limit Theorem, $\bar{X}$ is approximately normally distributed. The test procedure defines the critical region (rejection region) as $C=\{\bar{X} \leq 4.75\}$.

What is the size of this test (the probability of a Type I error)?

(You may use the standard normal CDF value $\Phi(1.5)=0.9332$ )

  1. $0.0668$
     
  2. $0.9332$
     
  3. $0.0228$
     
  4. $0.1151$

1 Answer

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The question asks for the size of the test.

  • The size of the test is the probability of making a Type I error ( $\alpha$ ).
     
  • A Type I error is rejecting $H_0$ when $H_0$ is true.
     
  • The critical region (rejection region) is given as $C=\{\bar{X} \leq 4.75\}$.
     
  • Therefore, $\alpha=P$ (Reject $H_0 \mid H_0$ is true).
     
  • $\alpha=P(\bar{X} \leq 4.75 \mid \mu \geq 5)$.

To calculate the size, we use the "worst-case" scenario, which is the value of $\mu$ at the boundary of $H_0$.

  • We must calculate: $\alpha=P(\bar{X} \leq 4.75 \mid \mu=5)$.

The sample $X_i$ is from a uniform distribution $U[0, \theta]$.

  • Population Mean $(\mu): E[X]=\frac{0+\theta}{2}=\frac{\theta}{2}$
     
  • Population Variance $\left(\sigma^2\right): \operatorname{Var}(X)=\frac{(\theta-0)^2}{12}=\frac{\theta^2}{12}$

We are calculating the size under the assumption $\mu=5$.

  • If $\mu=5$, then $\frac{\theta}{2}=5 \Longrightarrow \theta=10$.
     
  • Using $\theta=10$, the population variance is: $\sigma^2=\frac{10^2}{12}=\frac{100}{12}=\frac{25}{3}$.

The CLT states that for a large sample ( $n=300$ ), the sample mean $\bar{X}$ is approximately normally distributed: $\bar{X} \approx N\left(\mu_{\bar{X}}, \sigma_{\bar{X}}^2\right)$

  • Mean of $\bar{X}\left(\mu_{\dot{X}}\right)$ : This is the population mean, which we assume to be $\mu=5$.
     
  • Variance of $\bar{X}\left(\sigma_{\bar{X}}^2\right)$ : This is the population variance divided by n. $\sigma_{\bar{X}}^2=\frac{\sigma^2}{n}=\frac{25 / 3}{300}= \frac{25}{900}=\frac{1}{36}$
     
  • Standard Deviation of $\bar{X}\left(\sigma_{\bar{X}}\right): \sigma_{\bar{X}}=\sqrt{\frac{1}{36}}=\frac{1}{6}$

So, under $H_0$, the distribution of the sample mean is $\bar{X} \approx N(\mu=5, \sigma=1 / 6)$.

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