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A forest contains $20$ elk, of which $5$ are captured, tagged, and released. A week later, $4$ of the $20$ elk are captured again. What is the probability that exactly $2$ of these $4$ elk have been tagged?

  1. $\dfrac{70}{323}$
     
  2. $\dfrac{35}{323}$
     
  3. $\dfrac{105}{323}$
     
  4. $\dfrac{5}{19}$

2 Answers

4 4 votes
The total number of ways of selecting $4$ elk from $20$ elk is ${}^{20}C_4$.

Out of the $20$ elk, $5$ are tagged and $15$ are untagged.

We want exactly $2$ of the $4$ captured elk to be tagged.

The number of ways to choose $2$ tagged elk from $5$ tagged elk is ${{}^5C_2}$.

The number of ways to choose the remaining $2$ elk from the $15$ untagged elk is ${{}^{15}C_2}$.

So, the number of favorable outcomes is

${}^5C_2 \cdot {}^{15}C_2$.

Therefore, the required probability is

$P(\text{exactly }2\text{ tagged})=\dfrac{{}^5C_2\cdot{}^{15}C_2}{{}^{20}C_4}$.

Now,

${}^5C_2=10$, $\quad$ ${}^{15}C_2=105$, $\quad$ ${}^{20}C_4=4845$.

Hence,

$P(\text{exactly }2\text{ tagged})=\dfrac{10\cdot105}{4845} =\dfrac{1050}{4845} =\dfrac{70}{323}$.

Thus, the probability that exactly $2$ of the $4$ captured elk have been tagged is $\dfrac{70}{323}$.
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