280 views
3 3 votes

Suppose you keep tossing a fair coin until you get the first head. Let $Y$ be the number of tosses until the first head appears. Find the probability that $Y$ is odd, given that $Y$ is not a multiple of $3$.

  1. $\frac{1}{2}$
     
  2. $\frac{4}{7}$
     
  3. $\frac{17}{27}$
     
  4. $\frac{5}{9}$

1 Answer

1 1 vote

Let the number of tosses be $Y$. Since we are tossing a fair coin until the first head appears, $Y$ follows a geometric distribution with probability $p = \frac{1}{2}$.

The probability of getting the first head on the $k$-th toss is:

$$ P(Y = k) = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{k-1} \left(\frac{1}{2}\right) = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^k $$

We want to find $P(\text{Odd} \mid \text{Not a multiple of 3})$, which is defined as:

$$ P(\text{Odd} \mid \text{Not a multiple of 3}) = \frac{P(\text{Odd} \text{ and } \text{Not a multiple of 3})}{P(\text{Not a multiple of 3})} $$

Finding the probability that $Y$ is not a multiple of $\mathbf{3}$ :

It is easier to calculate the complement: the probability that $Y$ is a multiple of $3$ ($Y \in \{3, 6, 9, 12, \dots\}$).

This is an infinite geometric series:

$$ P(Y \text{ is a multiple of 3}) = P(Y=3) + P(Y=6) + P(Y=9) + \dots $$

$$ = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^3 + \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^6 + \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^9 + \dots $$

The first term is $a = \frac{1}{8}$ and the common ratio is $r = \frac{1}{8}$. The sum is:

$$ \frac{a}{1 - r} = \frac{\frac{1}{8}}{1 - \frac{1}{8}} = \frac{\frac{1}{8}}{\frac{7}{8}} = \frac{1}{7} $$

Therefore, the probability that $Y$ is not a multiple of $3$ is:

$$ P(\text{Not a multiple of 3}) = 1 - \frac{1}{7} = \frac{6}{7} $$

 

Finding the probability that $Y$ is odd AND not a multiple of $\mathbf{3}$

The set of odd numbers that are not multiples of $3$ is $\{1, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, \dots\}$.

These numbers can be split into two sequences:

  • Sequence 1: $1, 7, 13, 19, \dots$ (which can be written as $6k+1$ for $k=0, 1, 2, \dots$)

  • Sequence 2: $5, 11, 17, 23, \dots$ (which can be written as $6k+5$ for $k=0, 1, 2, \dots$)

Let's find the sum of probabilities for each sequence.

For Sequence 1 ($1, 7, 13, \dots$):

$$ P(Y \in \{1, 7, 13, \dots\}) = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^1 + \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^7 + \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{13} + \dots $$

This is a geometric series with first term $a = \frac{1}{2}$ and common ratio $r = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^6 = \frac{1}{64}$.

$$ \text{Sum}_1 = \frac{\frac{1}{2}}{1 - \frac{1}{64}} = \frac{\frac{1}{2}}{\frac{63}{64}} = \frac{1}{2} \cdot \frac{64}{63} = \frac{32}{63} $$

For Sequence 2 ($5, 11, 17, \dots$):

$$ P(Y \in \{5, 11, 17, \dots\}) = \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^5 + \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{11} + \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{17} + \dots $$

This is a geometric series with first term $a = \frac{1}{32}$ and common ratio $r = \frac{1}{64}$.

$$ \text{Sum}_2 = \frac{\frac{1}{32}}{1 - \frac{1}{64}} = \frac{\frac{1}{32}}{\frac{63}{64}} = \frac{1}{32} \cdot \frac{64}{63} = \frac{2}{63} $$

Adding these together gives the intersection probability:

$$ P(\text{Odd} \text{ and } \text{Not a multiple of 3}) = \frac{32}{63} + \frac{2}{63} = \frac{34}{63} $$

 

Now, 

$$ P(\text{Odd} \mid \text{Not a multiple of 3}) = \frac{P(\text{Odd} \text{ and } \text{Not a multiple of 3})}{P(\text{Not a multiple of 3})} = \frac{\frac{34}{63}}{\frac{6}{7}} = \boxed{\frac{17}{27}} $$

edited by
Answer:
Position:
Show:

Related questions

3 3 votes
2 2 answers
312
312 views
GO Classes asked May 2
312 views
A delivery worker is assigned one of three types of delivery routes by drawing a card from a box containing $6$ cards numbered $1$ through $6$.If the card is $1$ or $2$, ...
4 4 votes
1 1 answer
313
313 views
GO Classes asked May 2
313 views
A website assigns each new visitor one of $6$ equally likely security icons, independently of all previous visitors. The administrator watches the sequence of assigned ic...
3 3 votes
1 1 answer
249
249 views
GO Classes asked May 2
249 views
A random variable $X$ has probability mass function given by :$$p_X(x)=\begin{cases} c, & \text{if } x=-1 \\\\ 2c, & \text{if } x=1 \\\\ \frac{1}{6}, & \text{if } x=4 \\\...
4 4 votes
1 1 answer
294
294 views
GO Classes asked May 2
294 views
Suppose that a person plays $12$ independent games. In each game, he wins with probability $\frac{1}{3}$ and loses otherwise. If he wins a game, he earns $9$ dollars, and...