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Probability
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murder takes place in an isolated village with 500 inhabitants. The police believe that

red polyester fibers will have been transferred on to the murderer’s clothes during the

assault. Forensic experiments reveal that a probability of 0.9 can be assigned to such a transfer while the random acquisition of such fibers by the innocent population can be

given a probability of 0.05. Calculate the following probabilities:

(a) P(guilt| fibers present)

(b) P(fibres|guilt)

(c) P(fibers)

(d) P(guilt and fibers present).
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